TUBAC, AZ -- Mexican grape growers expect to ship 22 million cartons of grapes this spring -- up 25.6 percent from 2018. The numbers were announced March 21 at the climax of the Mexico Table Grape Spring Summit.
Marco Molina Sr., who presented the estimate in his role as the chairman of AALPUM, the Mexican table grape association, said that about 4 million cartons of grapes are expected to be sold within the Mexican market. This production is in addition to the 22 million cited for export.
Marco Molina Sr.
Mexico’s total grape pack out in 2018 was 16.4 million boxes. In 2017 that total was 21 million.
In 2018, there were odd weather patterns, and cold in March particularly reduced and disrupted the crop, which resulted in an irregular harvest schedule in 2018, depending on the weather impact on different Sonoran growing zones.
Growers told The Produce News that they expect the first harvest to begin in early May.
Best promotion weeks
In advising best weeks for promotion of varietal categories, AALPUM encourages early-green and Flame grape promotions running from Week 21 to Week 23. Week 21 is the week of May 19.
For Flames, the best promotion period is expected to run from Week 21 to Week 25.
Mid-season green seedless promotions should be best from Week 23 to Week 26. Retailers are encouraged to promote Red Globes from Week 222 to Week 24.
“Others” coming on strong….
The 2019 estimate presented six categories of Mexican table grapes: green, Flame, Sugraone, Red Globe, Black and others. “Others” includes the many new high-taste varieties that have been planted in recent years. To date, the volume of the maturing crops is insufficient to register individually, but Molina said the largest increases in production this year are coming from those specialty grapes.
Over the last three years, the “other” category has shot up from 840,000 boxes in 2017 to 934,000 last year to 1.5 million for 2019.
Flames account for almost half of all Mexican fresh grape production, with 10.6 million cartons forecast this year. This is up almost 33 percent from 7.1 million cases in 2018. In 2017, 10.1 million boxes of Flames were packed in Mexico.
Sugraone this year moves ahead of green grapes to have a projected 4.3 million cartons. This number was 4.4 million in 2017 and down to 3.1 million last year.
For the 2019 crop, green grape production is estimated to be 4 million cases. This is up 16.5 percent from a total 2018 pack out of 3.3 million. In 2017, the green grape pack out in Mexico was 3.6 million.
Black grape production in Mexico is to be down for the third straight year. The 2019 estimate anticipates 1 million boxes. Black grape pack out in 2018 was 1.2 million, down from 1.3 million in 2017.
Red Globe production is also expected to be down for the third straight year, with 600,000 boxes forecast. Red Globes this year are forecast to be down 3.1 percent from 2018 and well below the 688,000 boxes packed in 2017.
Estimate timing and location
The location of this meeting, held in Tubac, AZ, and the date were both a change from the norm.
Molina said the meeting was moved to late March from its usual late-April timing to avoid conflicts with the week of Easter.
Because it was calculated early to accommodate the March 21 meeting -- six weeks before the harvest is to begin -- Molina said the crop estimate, which is almost always accurate within 5 percent, may be a little less reliable, depending on weather and growing conditions in Mexico in the next month. He told The Produce News that a second crop survey will probably be made in a few weeks.
AALPUM Director General Juan Laborin stood on stage with Molina and reminded the several hundred in attendance, that berry size could swing the final production “by 18 percent, more or less. That’s why this (estimate) is difficult. But it is a statistical method.”
In recent years the table grape estimate presentation has been held in Hermosillo, Sonora. A few years ago, there was a grape meeting in the Gulf of California resort town of San Carlos, Sonora. But Molina said the Arizona venue brought an increased participation of interested U.S. industry players.
